Opinion: The Power Of Diversification – Will Ms. Aisha Nabulo Unite Or Divide Sironko’s NRM?

By Bwayo Geoffrey

In Uganda’s dynamic political landscape, diversification is essential for the success of any political party, especially the National Resistance Movement (NRM). At the heart of a strategic crossroads stands Ms. Aisha Nabulo Lumolo, a promising and influential figure. She faces a crucial decision: should she challenge Hon. Florence Nambozo Mayoga for the Sironko Woman MP seat once more, or should she seize a new opportunity by contesting for the Budadiri West Constituency, left open by Hon. Nandala Mafabi’s recent presidential ambitions?

Hon. Nandala Mafabi’s declaration to run for the presidency has created a significant opening in Budadiri West. This development is not only a personal political shift but also a golden opportunity for the NRM to solidify its foothold in Sironko District. In particular, it presents a chance for the party to align its leadership more strategically and reduce internal friction.

Ms. Nabulo’s Muslim heritage, in a district where Muslims form a notable portion of the population, especially in Sironko Town Council, greater Buyobo, and greater Bukhulo (where she is married), positions her uniquely to attract and consolidate support. According to extrapolated data from the 2002 and 2014 Population Census, Muslims account for approximately 21% of Sironko’s population, with even higher concentrations in these specific areas.

Currently, the NRM faces serious internal discord in Sironko. A notable example is the ongoing rift between Minister Nambozo and Haji Suleiman Lumolo Mafabi, the NRM District Chairperson. After a contentious internal party election, Haji Lumolo retained his position amid accusations of irregularities by Minister Nambozo, who subsequently walked out. This disunity threatens the party’s standing, especially as the opposition Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) continues to control critical district-level positions.

In the 2021 general elections, Hon. Nambozo narrowly retained her seat with 31,119 votes, while Ms. Nabulo garnered 29,744 votes—both on the NRM ticket. A rematch between these two could split the vote and open the door for opposition parties like the FDC to capitalize on the division. In contrast, if Ms. Nabulo pivots to contest for Budadiri West, she could help unify the NRM base while expanding its reach in new demographic and geographic areas.

History provides numerous examples where political parties have benefited from strategic diversification:

• In 2008, the Democratic Party in the United States focused on congressional and state-level elections while Barack Obama ran for president. This dual strategy helped the party maintain a strong legislative presence and pass landmark policies like the Affordable Care Act.
• In the United Kingdom, the Conservative Party’s strategic focus on local council elections during Boris Johnson’s 2008 mayoral campaign helped them build a grassroots foundation, contributing to their victory in the 2010 general election.

Conversely, a lack of diversification and intra-party competition has sometimes weakened parties:

• In the 2000 US presidential election, Ralph Nader’s third-party candidacy siphoned crucial votes from Al Gore, allowing George W. Bush to win Florida by just 537 votes and, ultimately, the presidency.
• In 2016, the prolonged and divisive Democratic primary battle between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders weakened party unity and contributed to Donald Trump’s victory in the general election.

Ms. Nabulo’s ties to the NRM establishment—as the daughter of the party boss in Sironko—could position her strongly in the Budadiri West primaries. Her candidacy in this constituency would not only minimize internal friction but also potentially rally the Muslim electorate and strengthen NRM’s hold in the region.

By embracing a strategy of diversification, the NRM stands to gain in several ways:

1. Broader representation across multiple positions of leadership.
2. Reduced vote splitting, which has historically weakened party performance.
3. Consolidation of demographic support, particularly in Muslim-majority areas.

Therefore;

My appeal is straightforward: Ms. Aisha Nabulo should rethink her ambition to contest the Sironko Woman MP seat and instead consider running for Budadiri West Constituency. This move would serve the greater interest of the NRM, fostering unity and strategic growth, while also ensuring more cohesive and effective representation for the people of Sironko District at the national level.

In doing so, Ms. Nabulo would not only elevate her political career but also play a pivotal role in reinforcing the NRM’s influence in the Elgon sub-region—ushering in a new era of collaboration, inclusivity, and strategic leadership.

Mr. Bwayo Geoffrey is a key opinion leader in the Elgon Zone.
Tel: 0762589133